Nach der umstrittenen zweiten Runde der Präsidentschaftswahl
in der Ukraine, befürchten viele
den Ausbruch gewalttätiger Auseinandersetzungen in
Kiew und anderen Städten zwischen den Tausenden von
Anhängern der Opposition und den Sicherheitskräften. In
diesem Artikel, der vom European Policy Centre veröffentlicht
wurde, analysiert Wojciech Sarysz-Wolski die
Faktoren, die zu dieser unberechenbaren Situation geführt haben und
umreisst mögliche Reaktionen der EU.
Introduction
On 21 November Ukraine held run-off Presidential elections
between current Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, representing the
present ruling elite, and Viktor Yushchenko, the leader of “Our
Ukraine,” the largest opposition block. The Ukrainian Central
Election Commission reported on the 23 November that with 99.48%
percent of the vote counted, Mr. Yanukovych had garnered 49.39%
percent of the vote, while Mr. Yushchenko’s trailed him at 46.69%.
The official numbers favouring Yanukovych are mainly the results of
the east-Ukrainian voting constituencies, like Donetsk, which
claimed a turnout of 96%, with all votes going to the current
premier. Meanwhile, the two independent exit polls show a
Yushchenko victory: the opposition candidate leads Prime Minister
Yanukovych by 12% in one (54% to 43%) and 3% in the other (49.7% to
46.7%).
Representatives of the international community, including
election observers from the Organisation for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have criticized this second round of
elections as failing to meet democratic standards. Only Russian
President Vladimir Putin seems to disagree. As well as the
objections voiced by foreign observers, the protests in the country
– particularly in the capital Kiev – are growing ever more vocal
and observers fear civil unrest might be looming.
The Yushchenko camp has rejected the official figures given by
the Central Election Commission and has pointed to reports of
electoral fraud. Already seven local municipalities, including Lviv
and Kiev have refused to accept Mr. Yanukovych’s alleged victory
and have proclaimed the opposition leader as the new president. At
the same time, street rallies in almost all the major cities across
the country are gathering momentum. The biggest protest, which
began at the Kiev’s Independence Square on the evening of the
election, has turned into a demonstration of over two hundred
thousand people. With the tensions mounting, and a possible
standoff with security forces possible, the country’s difficulties
in deciding its identity and its future orientation become all the
more clear.
Political Scene
Similar to most of the newly independent countries that arose
out of the ruins of the USSR, the Ukrainian political sphere is
highly interlinked with the business circles. The privatisation
processes that began in the 1990’s have made these two groups
dependent on one another to the extent that they are almost
undistinguishable.
The political and business power in Ukraine lies in hands of
three main oligarchic groups. These are the so-called
Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kiev clans. Current President Leonid
Kuchma is a member of the Dnipropetrovsk group. The Donetsk group
is based on the Donbas’ Industrial Group (ISD), a huge holding
controlling hundreds of heavy industry companies in eastern
Ukraine, which is currently expanding its foothold in the EU-based
businesses. Prime Minister Yanukovych is assumed to be a member of
the Donetsk group. As for the Kiev clan, Viktor Medvedchuk – the
head of the presidential administration and the leader of Social
Democratic Party of Ukraine-united (SDPU-o), plays an important
role in it. He is perceived to be one of the most important
representatives of Russian interests in Ukraine and controls a
large segment of the media.
The parliamentary support for the government consists of highly
heterogeneous groups representing various business, political and
regional interests that are held together only by their joint fear
of the opposition forces. The latter managed to present itself as a
united front, with the radical opposition Yuliya Tymoshenko’s Bloc
supporting Mr. Yushchenko’s candidature for Presidency. His own
bloc – currently the biggest single group in the Parliamentary
Assembly – represents a coalition of ten centre-right parties,
which he managed to rally around him in 2002. Among the post-Soviet
new independent states, Ukraine has one of the most vibrant
opposition forces, with solid internal discipline, good
organization and financial backing. Although far from being a model
democracy, Ukraine is nevertheless one of the few places east of
the EU in which voters seemingly have a real political alternative
and where civil society plays an important role.
Read the full article on the European Policy Centre website.