Länder, die der EU beitreten wollen, müssen vier Beitrittsbedingungen erfüllen: eine ist politisch, eine betrifft EU-Recht und zwei betreffen wirtschaftliche Aspekte. Die Türkei hat hinsichtlich von Demokratie, Rechtstaatlichkeit und Minderheitenrechte große Fortschritte erzielt. Obgleich die EU die türkische Politik auch weiter im Auge behalten wird, wird der Schwerpunkt während der Beitrittsverhandlungen, die im Oktober 2005 beginnen sollen, auf die Wirtschaft gelegt werden. Hierüber schreibt Katinka Barysch, leitende Wirtschaftswissenschaftlerin des Centre for European Reform.
- Many West Europeans fear that the accession of Turkey – poor, populous and often unstable – will harm the EU economy. But Turkey’s economy is tiny compared with that of the EU-25. And what little economic impact Turkey’s EU entry will have is likely to be positive.
- Turkey already has a custom union with the EU, and in many ways it is better prepared than the Central and East Europeans were when they started accession talks. But Turkey’s accession process will be more difficult to manage than that of the East European countries. Turkey’s large pile of debt leaves it unusually vulnerable to swings in investor confidence. Moreover, Ankara will not be able to use EU accession as an anchor for economic reform in the way the East Europeans did.
- Turkish workers will not gain the right to apply for jobs in other EU countries until after 2020. By then, many West European countries may well be wooing Turkish workers to help them compensate for the ageing of their own workforces.
- Eastward enlargement is already forcing the EU to change in a way that will, eventually, make it easier for Turkey to join. By then, the EU will hopefully have more efficient institutions and decision-making procedures. And it will have sorted out its labour market problems. If not, the EU of 2015 or 2020 will be slow-growing, gridlocked and unwelcoming. Turkey would not want to join such a club.
To read the article in full, visit the Centre for European Reform website.