Die Gruppe Climate Strategies beobachtet in einem Bericht vom März 2007, dass die Bedenken um den Verlust der wirtschaftlichen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit eine der größten Hürden blieben auf dem Weg zu robusteren Verpflichtungen zur CO2-Begrenzung für Wirtschaftssektoren in der EU.
The authors claim that the EU emissions trading scheme – launched in January 2005 – is the world’s most ambitious climate policy to date, and that its role in establishing a price for carbon is an achievement of global significance. However, the ETS faces challenges that potentially undermine its environmental effectiveness and credible survival beyond 2012, they believe.
The most significant of these challenges is addressing the issue of industrial competitiveness, because concern about loss of industrial competitiveness is one of the main obstacles to governments adopting stringent climate policies, according to the report. Governments fear that policies applied to domestic energy-intensive sectors facing competition from firms located in regions without climate policy could reduce their international competitiveness, resulting in loss of profitability and market share, claim the authors.
The report strongly supports the creation of a sector-specific allocation of permits to better address industrial competitiveness in the ETS. New data reveals that the significant impact of emission trading on competitiveness is concentrated on a far smaller fraction of industrial activities than previous studies have shown.
Cement is the sector with the highest potential cost impact [other than aluminium which is not taken into account in the study], while steel is considered to be particularly open for international trade, find the authors. However, non-tariff barriers to trade, such as transportation costs, product differentiation and import restrictions, soften the international pressure they are subjected to, they claim.
Finally, the report finds that assessing the profitability impact of the ETS – and the scope for auctioning permits – is difficult, as figures for the rate of free allowance allocation cannot be accurately determined. Profitability variations for cement production depend much more on the rate of free allocation, while the relatively low carbon dioxide intensity of the steel sector means that the rate of allocation is less important, finds the research.
The report concludes that the carbon constraint imposed on European companies by the ETS causes a loss in market share and a loss in profitability. European firms can trade-off these two impacts to a certain extent. Therefore, the authors conclude that market share losses for European industry are likely to remain moderate, even with significant price increases.