Die ‚harten und widersprüchlichen Haltungen‘ der Vereinigten Staaten und Russlands in Hinblick auf den Kosovo könnten eine politische Spaltung in der EU verursachen. Dies könnte zu einem Verlust der Glaubwürdigkeit der EU als ein Akteur der Außenpolitik führen, warnt Branka Trivic vom Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN).
The US has indicated that it would recognise an independent Kosovo, remarks Trivic in a 12 September Insight paper – speculating that it would do so even „in the absence of any settlement on the province’s future status“ as it is „the only way stable forward in the Balkans“.
Russia reacted strongly to this, warning that statements prejudicing a future solution „before negotiations wind up“ would „not contribute to the process“, she adds.
Meanwhile, Trivic believes that Austria „indirectly criticised“ the US and Russian statements by remarking that neither Serbia nor Kosovo „will join either the US or Russia“, saying instead that „the direction is the European Union“.
The stalemate over Kosovo has caused „deep“ divisions within the EU, writes the author. Britain and France „seem ready“ to recognise a unilateral declaration of independence, though others are reluctant to do so, including Spain, Hungary, Greece, Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania and Bulgaria. Meanwhile, Germany’s position is „ambiguous“, she writes.
Trivic speculates that the US would be willing to support a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo provided that Britain, France and Germany all do so too.
Portugal has warned that avoiding an EU split on Kosovo is „key to the credibility of Europe’s foreign policy“, remarks Trivic. She warns of the dangers of the EU’s „habitual splits and foot-dragging“, and believes that US pressure – a „necessary ingredient in a sluggish, process-driven European Union“ – is required if Kosovo’s status is to be resolved.
The author also highlights potential problems for the EU over the status of its peacekeeping mission if Kosovo were to declare independence on its own, with Germany in particular constitutionally unable to keep troops there in the absence of a UN mandate.
Trivic concludes by stating that the American threat of unilateralism in Kosovo has left the EU „in a panic“ as it is „caught between the need to maintain stability“ in the Balkans and „safeguard unity within the EU“.
Europe „does not seem to know which card to play in order to prove it still has some credibility in resolving the Kosovo endgame“, she adds.