Aufgrund des zunehmenden Inflationsdrucks sollte die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) nicht bis zum nächsten Jahr warten, bis sie ihre Zinssätze von ihrem derzeitigen Stand auf 4% anhebe, schreibt Wolfgang Münchau von EuroIntelligence.
Three principal developments contribute to inflationary tendencies, according to Münchau:
- Increasing wage pressure due to the recent consolidation of European economies. The author cites the latest four per cent wage deal in the Austrian engineering industry, which was considered a benchmark for the country, and the ongoing train drivers‘ strike in support of a 30 percent pay rise. The traditional disinflationary impact of the German labour market is about to end, Münchau says.
- Tight monetary and credit developments. In September, the annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations was more than 14 percent higher than a year ago.
- Economic growth is expected to remain above, or close to, potential growth, to cite the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, which forecasts a growth rate for the eurozone of 2.5 percent for this year and 2.1 percent for 2008.
These trends make it unlikely that the ECB will meet its inflation target of less than two percent, the author says. Thus, despite the arguments against an increase – most notably the uncertainty caused by credit market turmoil and the rise of the euro’s bilateral exchange rate against the dollar – Münchau favours increasing short-term interest rates to above their current four percent level.
However, Münchau concluded that he does not expect the ECB to increase interest rates, because it wants to avoid a political clash with politicians, who are calling for rate cuts. Thus the ECB is risking a persistent rise in inflation, he adds.