Frédéric Allemand von der Robert-Schuman-Stiftung zeichnet ein kritisches Bild der Integration der neuen Mitgliedstaaten in die Währungsunion. Den Schwerpunkt legt er hierbei auf die Beitrittsbedingungen, die Konvergenzstrategien sowie die Einstellung der Bürger.
Enlargement has significantly modified the equilibrium of the European Monetary Union (EMU), by raising the number of ‚outs‘ (EU countries not participating to the euro) to 13 against 12 ‚ins.‘ Therefore, „the enlargement has converted membership of the Eurozone as an exception,“ as F. Allemand puts it.
However, in accordance with the provisions of the Maastricht Treaty, all new members had to commit to adopt the European single currency when entering the EU – and the ten countries have all expressed interest to do so at the earliest possible time.
At any rate, it will be a long way to the Eurozone since new member states willing to participate have to fulfil constraining legal and economic criteria, to elaborate convergence strategies likely to pass the unanimity test in the Council and ideally, to receive public opinion backing for the changeover.
The first part of the paper deals with procedural aspects of the monetary integration process, which according to F. Allemand are „anachronic“ and „ill-adapted“ to the growing heterogeneity of participants to the euro. „The one size fits all approach underlying the nominal convergence procedure does not allow for an acute assessment of the real convergence of catching-up economies,“ the author argues, thus echoing recurrent debates among European economic circles.
There also are strong evidences that a strict interpretation of the Maastricht criteria (price stability, debt, public deficit, change stability and long-term interest rates convergence) could even prevent economies to converge in real terms. Although the Treaty allows for a modification of these criteria, the chances that such changes are agreed on in the Council are seriously hampered by the unanimity rule that governs this part of the procedure, F. Allemand points out.
On the current state of the Eurozone enlargement, the author describes the deep economic mutations that have operated within potential entrants. Without pre-empting the outcome of the process, he emphasises that „whether new member states will successfully enter the Eurozone or not cannot only be assessed according to legal and economic convergence criteria“, but largely upon broad citizens‘ support.
On this particular dimension, F. Allemand notes the widespread fears of citizens in applicant countries. Among other factors, he attributes this reaction to the lack or low quality of information campaigns by governments involved. Indeed, opinion polls quoted by the author reveal that two thirds of new member states‘ citizens think they are badly informed about the euro.