In diesem in The Economist veröffentlichten Artikel wird bewertet, ob es den ehemaligen kommunistischen Ländern jemals gelingen kann, ihren Rückstand gutzumachen.
A dollar a day or less is the World Bank’s standard definition of poverty. But in the cold ex-communist countries of central and eastern Europe, where more is needed for heating and clothes, $2.15 is the poverty line. Many people have now climbed above that level: between 1998 and 2003 alone, more than 40m moved out of poverty; 60m remain. The best performer, Hungary, has almost no people living in poverty; in the worst, Tajikistan, the figure is 70%. But the bigger question is which post-communist countries stand a chance of catching up with the rich world within a generation, and which will stay poor for the rest of the century.
The sunniest outlook is in the countries that have done best so far: the eight new members of the European Union, plus Croatia, which hopes to join soon. They have got two big things right. The first is openness to foreign trade, which is strongly associated with economic growth. Competition from foreign firms, whether at home or in export markets, sharply raises productivity.
The second, harder to measure, is having the institutions to make capitalism work, create confidence, bust cartels, rein in greedy officials, enforce contracts and safeguard property. Why some countries are better at this than others is hotly debated. Steven Fries, of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), highlights “political contestability and the rule of law”—when incompetent politicians and officials risk losing their jobs, and corrupt ones may go to jail.