Das BIP europäischer Regionen für das Jahr 2002 ist vor Kurzem veröffentlicht worden. Diese Daten machen es möglich, diejenigen Gebiete zu identifizieren, die sich dem europäischen Durschnitt seit 1995 angennähert haben, aber auch festzustellen, zu welchen Regionen sich die Unterschiede auch auf lange Sicht vergrößern werden. Hiermit befasst sich die neueste Ausgabe von Revue Elargissement.
Over the 1995-2002 period and measured in terms of Purchasing Power Standard (PPS), the GDP/capita of 31 of the 41 regions of the NMS, at the NUTS 2 level of Eurostat’s statistical nomenclature, converged towards the average level of the EU25. On average, the growth rate (of GDP/capita in PPS) of the NEMS reached 5.6% per annum over the period and 4% for the regions of the former EU15 (4.2% for the EU25).
Not surprisingly, six of the ten regions which did not converge are Czech. Indeed, the Czech Republic is, with Cyprus, the only country among the NMS whose growth was weaker than that of the EU15 over the period. Did these regions hence enter a divergence process ? Other factors should be analysed.
The NMS regions can be divided into three groups: 1) 11 regions with a great divergence potential, where the average annual growth of the GDP/capita, in PPS, is lower than the regional average minus one standard deviation and, where, in general, employment and population drop and unemployment increases *; 2) 10 regions with strong convergence potential, a group whose characteristics are opposed to those of the first category; 3) an intermediate group of 20 regions, half of them in a situation of “positive uncertainty”, the other half being rather in “negative uncertainty”.
The group with strong catching-up potential includes: the three Baltic States and Slovenia, four “small economies” considered as a single region at the NUTS2 statistical level; three Hungarian regions along the Vienna-Budapest axis, and, more to the east, the Debrecen region; the regions of Bratislava and, more surprisingly, the extreme East of Slovakia (Kosice), where employment and population has increased over the period and unemployment has been decreasing regularly since 2000 (-2.4% a year).
The category with a strong risk of divergence includes: in the Czech Republic, the two Moravian regions and south-east Bohemia; south Transdanubia (Pecs) in Hungary; and eight Polish, those around Katowice, Zielona Gora, Rzeszow, Szcecin, Lublin, Opole, Bydgoszcz, Olsztyn.
The regions which are in a “positive uncertainty” situation are characterised either by a dynamic (> 5.5%) or very dynamic (> 7.1%) growth in GDP/head (in PPS) but rising unemployment, and falling employment (and a population in general stagnant) or, by a weaker growth than the NMS average but a rise in employment and/or a fall in unemployment; in the regions comprising this group, the positive component of the “creative destruction” process which has been in progress since the beginning of the transition may start to dominate, as in Lower Silesia (Wroclaw) or the region of Miskolc in North-East Hungary. In the regions with “negative uncertainty”, as in the region between the Czech and German border (Karlovy Vary), growth is particularly weak (< 4.1%, i.e. the regional average minus one standard deviation) but unemployment falling, or weak (between 4.1% and 5.6%, average of the NMS), but employment is also falling and unemployment rising or, if not, it is merely due to emigration.
In the future Members (Romania and Bulgaria), except in Bucharest and its surrounding area, all the regions would belong to the category with strong risks of divergence, combining weak growth, lower employment and population. Nevertheless, the acceleration of growth during the past few years (following the delay in the transition process), is not taken into account in these statistics.
Lastly, it can be noted that Bucharest and Warsaw both exert attraction with regard to the province: their GDP/capita is growing quickly, but employment is falling, whereas unemployment and population are both on the increase.
To read the full report complete with tables, visit the MINEFI-DREE website.